Vector Forecasts

Mapping the future of your investments

Kensington Intelligence is the data and analytics platform of the Kensington Mortgages. This function provides data science, data visualisation and models to the group and external clients

Kensington has invested heavily in data for over a decade. This data is primarily mortgage loan level performance data over a period of 30 years and includes 32 million data points through several macro economic cycles.

The key predictive model developed by Kensington Intelligence is called VECTOR. This is a state transition model used to predict loan level performance of mortgage portfolios. All Kensington mortgages are analysed by VECTOR, our proprietary and hugely powerful analytical model that is embedded into all phases of the mortgage lifecycle. VECTOR is supported by a unique dataset comprising over 400k mortgage accounts spanning all UK geographies, housing types, mortgage types and credit loan parameters for the last 24 years, and has driven the development of a number of in-house analytical tools and reporting capabilities that are key to the unique way in which Kensington assesses and manages mortgage credit risk.

VECTOR is a state transition model, which looks to forecast not just the propensity to default or redeem, but also the propensity of a loan to move between arrears statuses which means to worsen, to hold or to improve (all of these collectively called roll rates).

Kensington is working to license the VECTOR tool to external banks or investors in order for them to forecast the performance of their UK mortgage portfolios.